[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":974},["ShallowReactive",2],{"navigation":3,"\u002Fguide\u002Fviewing-trades\u002Fstats\u002Fmonthly-return-reliability":281,"\u002Fguide\u002Fviewing-trades\u002Fstats\u002Fmonthly-return-reliability-surround":969},{"guide":4,"challenges":250},[5],{"title":6,"path":7,"stem":8,"children":9},"Guide","\u002Fguide","guide",[10,13,35,76,141,162,191,216,241],{"title":11,"path":7,"stem":12},"Trading Vault Guide","guide\u002Findex",{"title":14,"path":15,"stem":16,"children":17,"page":34},"Journal Setup","\u002Fguide\u002Fjournal-setup","guide\u002F1.journal-setup",[18,22,26,30],{"title":19,"path":20,"stem":21},"Get 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Challenge","\u002Fchallenges\u002F30-day-consistency-challenge","challenges\u002F30-day-consistency-challenge",[261,265,269,273,277],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},"Introduction","\u002Fchallenges\u002F30-day-consistency-challenge\u002Fintroduction","challenges\u002F30-day-consistency-challenge\u002F1.introduction",{"title":266,"path":267,"stem":268},"Details","\u002Fchallenges\u002F30-day-consistency-challenge\u002Fdetails","challenges\u002F30-day-consistency-challenge\u002F2.details",{"title":270,"path":271,"stem":272},"Setup","\u002Fchallenges\u002F30-day-consistency-challenge\u002Fsetup","challenges\u002F30-day-consistency-challenge\u002F3.setup",{"title":274,"path":275,"stem":276},"Daily Actions","\u002Fchallenges\u002F30-day-consistency-challenge\u002Fdaily-actions","challenges\u002F30-day-consistency-challenge\u002F4.daily-actions",{"title":278,"path":279,"stem":280},"Next Steps","\u002Fchallenges\u002F30-day-consistency-challenge\u002Fnext-steps","challenges\u002F30-day-consistency-challenge\u002F5.next-steps",{"id":282,"title":123,"body":283,"description":960,"extension":961,"keywords":962,"links":963,"meta":964,"navigation":965,"path":124,"publishedAt":966,"seo":967,"stem":125,"toc":963,"updatedAt":963,"__hash__":968},"guide\u002Fguide\u002F3.viewing-trades\u002F5.stats\u002F6.monthly-return-reliability.md",{"type":284,"value":285,"toc":936},"minimark",[286,295,303,308,311,314,336,340,347,368,376,380,383,393,399,406,412,417,420,426,441,447,450,454,457,463,480,483,487,490,496,499,505,511,517,527,591,594,597,601,607,610,616,622,625,629,632,638,641,644,648,654,657,719,722,726,732,735,738,754,758,764,770,776,779,783,787,793,796,800,806,809,813,819,822,826,833,837,887,890,893,897,929],[287,288,289,290,294],"p",{},"Monthly Return Reliability measures ",[291,292,293],"strong",{},"how reliably the selected trades reproduced a dependable monthly R result when opportunities were available",". It is designed for traders whose monthly opportunity count changes and whose results may include occasional runners.",[287,296,297,298,302],{},"The score is available with Pro on Risk and contributes directly to the Reliability dimension of ",[299,300,301],"a",{"href":116},"Trading Mastery",".",[304,305,307],"h2",{"id":306},"why-simpler-approaches-are-insufficient","Why simpler approaches are insufficient",[287,309,310],{},"Average monthly R can be lifted by a few exceptional months, making ordinary profitable months look weak. Average R per trade ignores whether enough opportunities occurred to produce meaningful monthly output. Pure smoothness can reward consistently losing months.",[287,312,313],{},"Monthly Return Reliability uses a hybrid:",[315,316,317,321,324,327,330,333],"ol",{},[318,319,320],"li",{},"Find a cautious monthly R floor from completed active months.",[318,322,323],{},"Estimate each month's opportunity from trade count and observed R expectancy.",[318,325,326],{},"Lower the target when few opportunities occurred.",[318,328,329],{},"Measure downside-only shortfall beneath that target.",[318,331,332],{},"Scale the miss by normal variation in the selected trade outcomes.",[318,334,335],{},"Give every eligible month equal final weight.",[304,337,339],{"id":338},"eligible-months-and-observations","Eligible months and observations",[287,341,342,343,346],{},"Reliability uses complete ",[291,344,345],{},"active"," calendar months in the user's local timezone.",[348,349,350,353,356,359,362,365],"ul",{},[318,351,352],{},"A month is active when selected executed trades closed in it.",[318,354,355],{},"Inactive months are neutral and excluded.",[318,357,358],{},"Partial first and last boundary months are excluded.",[318,360,361],{},"The current month is always excluded, including on its final local day.",[318,363,364],{},"An active month with no observed R is missing data, not inactive.",[318,366,367],{},"Monthly Net R is the sum of observed realized R.",[287,369,370,371,375],{},"This differs from Sharpe and Sortino, which insert inactive complete months as ",[372,373,374],"code",{},"0%"," observations to preserve elapsed calendar time.",[304,377,379],{"id":378},"dependable-monthly-return","Dependable Monthly Return",[287,381,382],{},"Dependable Monthly Return is the lower quartile of eligible active-month Net R:",[384,385,391],"pre",{"className":386,"code":388,"language":389,"meta":390},[387],"language-text","Dependable Monthly Return = Q25(active-month Net R)\n","text","",[372,392,388],{"__ignoreMap":390},[287,394,395,396],{},"It answers: ",[291,397,398],{},"what monthly R result was met or exceeded in approximately 75% of eligible active months?",[287,400,401,402,405],{},"Trading Vault uses the Type-7 interpolated percentile. After sorting ",[372,403,404],{},"n"," monthly results:",[384,407,410],{"className":408,"code":409,"language":389,"meta":390},[387],"position = (n - 1) * 0.25\nlower index = floor(position)\nupper index = ceil(position)\nfraction = position - lower index\n\nQ25 = lower value + fraction * (upper value - lower value)\n",[372,411,409],{"__ignoreMap":390},[413,414,416],"h3",{"id":415},"worked-quartile-example","Worked quartile example",[287,418,419],{},"For these 12 sorted monthly returns:",[384,421,424],{"className":422,"code":423,"language":389,"meta":390},[387],"-2.99, -0.08, 0.40, 2.28, 2.29, 4.19,\n 4.43,  4.67, 6.24, 7.40, 8.25, 13.99\n",[372,425,423],{"__ignoreMap":390},[287,427,428,429,432,433,436,437,440],{},"The position is ",[372,430,431],{},"2.75",", between ",[372,434,435],{},"0.40R"," and ",[372,438,439],{},"2.28R",":",[384,442,445],{"className":443,"code":444,"language":389,"meta":390},[387],"Q25 = 0.40 + 0.75 * (2.28 - 0.40) = 1.81R\n",[372,446,444],{"__ignoreMap":390},[287,448,449],{},"Interpolation prevents one exact month from abruptly controlling the floor as filters or new observations change.",[413,451,453],{"id":452},"why-not-the-mean","Why not the mean?",[287,455,456],{},"Consider:",[384,458,461],{"className":459,"code":460,"language":389,"meta":390},[387],"+2R, +2R, +3R, +2R, +10R, +7R, +2R, +5R, +2R, +8R\n",[372,462,460],{"__ignoreMap":390},[287,464,465,466,469,470,436,473,476,477,479],{},"The repeatable floor is near ",[372,467,468],{},"+2R",". The ",[372,471,472],{},"+10R",[372,474,475],{},"+8R"," runners should not raise the target enough to penalize normal ",[372,478,468],{}," months.",[287,481,482],{},"A non-positive dependable floor remains visible, but it does not demonstrate reliably positive production. The final score is capped at 50 when either the dependable floor or overall R expectancy is non-positive.",[304,484,486],{"id":485},"opportunity-adjusted-monthly-target","Opportunity-adjusted monthly target",[287,488,489],{},"Overall R expectancy estimates expected result per observed opportunity:",[384,491,494],{"className":492,"code":493,"language":389,"meta":390},[387],"expectancy = sum(observed trade R) \u002F observed R trade count\n",[372,495,493],{"__ignoreMap":390},[287,497,498],{},"Let:",[384,500,503],{"className":501,"code":502,"language":389,"meta":390},[387],"F = max(0, Dependable Monthly Return)\nmu = max(0, overall R expectancy)\n",[372,504,502],{"__ignoreMap":390},[287,506,507,508,510],{},"For an active month with ",[372,509,404],{}," trades:",[384,512,515],{"className":513,"code":514,"language":389,"meta":390},[387],"opportunity expectation = n * mu\nadjusted target = min(F, opportunity expectation)\n",[372,516,514],{"__ignoreMap":390},[287,518,519,520,522,523,526],{},"If the dependable floor is ",[372,521,472],{}," and expectancy is ",[372,524,525],{},"+1.5R"," per trade:",[528,529,530,547],"table",{},[531,532,533],"thead",{},[534,535,536,541,544],"tr",{},[537,538,540],"th",{"align":539},"right","Trades",[537,542,543],{"align":539},"Opportunity expectation",[537,545,546],{"align":539},"Adjusted target",[548,549,550,560,570,580],"tbody",{},[534,551,552,556,558],{},[553,554,555],"td",{"align":539},"1",[553,557,525],{"align":539},[553,559,525],{"align":539},[534,561,562,565,568],{},[553,563,564],{"align":539},"2",[553,566,567],{"align":539},"+3.0R",[553,569,567],{"align":539},[534,571,572,575,578],{},[553,573,574],{"align":539},"5",[553,576,577],{"align":539},"+7.5R",[553,579,577],{"align":539},[534,581,582,585,588],{},[553,583,584],{"align":539},"10",[553,586,587],{"align":539},"+15.0R",[553,589,590],{"align":539},"capped at +10R",[287,592,593],{},"This prevents a low-opportunity month from being held to the full normal floor. Once enough opportunities occurred, the target stops increasing. Inactive months receive no target.",[287,595,596],{},"Trade expectancy is used only to estimate opportunity. A larger expectancy does not independently award more Reliability points.",[304,598,600],{"id":599},"downside-only-shortfall","Downside-only shortfall",[384,602,605],{"className":603,"code":604,"language":389,"meta":390},[387],"shortfall = max(0, adjusted target - monthly Net R)\n",[372,606,604],{"__ignoreMap":390},[287,608,609],{},"A month meeting or exceeding target has zero shortfall. Upside above target never offsets another month's miss and never creates a penalty. A traded break-even month is active and records a shortfall when its target is positive.",[287,611,612,615],{},[291,613,614],{},"Average Monthly Shortfall"," is:",[384,617,620],{"className":618,"code":619,"language":389,"meta":390},[387],"sum(monthly shortfalls) \u002F eligible active month count\n",[372,621,619],{"__ignoreMap":390},[287,623,624],{},"Months meeting target contribute zero. It is a downside-only average, not the signed difference between every result and target.",[304,626,628],{"id":627},"normal-trade-outcome-variation","Normal trade-outcome variation",[287,630,631],{},"Different strategies have different outcome distributions. Reliability scales shortfall using the population standard deviation of observed trade R:",[384,633,636],{"className":634,"code":635,"language":389,"meta":390},[387],"trade R variation = population SD(observed trade R)\n\ntrades required for floor = F \u002F mu\neffective opportunities = min(month trade count, trades required for floor)\n\nnormal monthly variation = trade R variation * sqrt(effective opportunities)\n",[372,637,635],{"__ignoreMap":390},[287,639,640],{},"The effective opportunity count stops increasing once the dependable floor is reachable. A high-volume month therefore does not receive unlimited tolerance after its target has already been capped.",[287,642,643],{},"When normal variation and shortfall are both zero, standardized shortfall is zero. When shortfall is positive but valid variation is zero, the month receives the maximum shortfall classification.",[304,645,647],{"id":646},"monthly-score","Monthly score",[384,649,652],{"className":650,"code":651,"language":389,"meta":390},[387],"standardized shortfall = shortfall \u002F normal monthly variation\n",[372,653,651],{"__ignoreMap":390},[287,655,656],{},"Trading Vault maps the result using linear interpolation:",[528,658,659,669],{},[531,660,661],{},[534,662,663,666],{},[537,664,665],{"align":539},"Standardized shortfall",[537,667,668],{"align":539},"Monthly reliability score",[548,670,671,679,687,695,703,711],{},[534,672,673,676],{},[553,674,675],{"align":539},"0.0",[553,677,678],{"align":539},"100",[534,680,681,684],{},[553,682,683],{"align":539},"0.5",[553,685,686],{"align":539},"95",[534,688,689,692],{},[553,690,691],{"align":539},"1.0",[553,693,694],{"align":539},"80",[534,696,697,700],{},[553,698,699],{"align":539},"1.5",[553,701,702],{"align":539},"60",[534,704,705,708],{},[553,706,707],{"align":539},"2.0",[553,709,710],{"align":539},"35",[534,712,713,716],{},[553,714,715],{"align":539},"3.0 or higher",[553,717,718],{"align":539},"0",[287,720,721],{},"This is deliberately one-sided. Strong positive months receive full credit without making weaker months look more reliable.",[304,723,725],{"id":724},"headline-reliability-score","Headline Reliability score",[384,727,730],{"className":728,"code":729,"language":389,"meta":390},[387],"Monthly Return Reliability =\n    sum(eligible monthly scores) \u002F eligible active month count\n",[372,731,729],{"__ignoreMap":390},[287,733,734],{},"Every eligible month has equal final importance after opportunity count and expected variation have been accounted for. A high-volume month does not receive more final weight merely because it contains more trades.",[287,736,737],{},"The result is displayed from 0–100 without a percentage sign or R suffix. It is a score, not an estimated probability.",[348,739,740,745,748,751],{},[318,741,742,744],{},[372,743,678],{}," means every eligible active month met its opportunity-adjusted target.",[318,746,747],{},"A high score means shortfalls were absent or modest relative to normal variation.",[318,749,750],{},"A middle score reflects mixed delivery, meaningful misses, or the non-positive edge\u002Ffloor cap.",[318,752,753],{},"A low score reflects repeated or severe deterioration beneath adjusted targets.",[304,755,757],{"id":756},"supporting-evidence","Supporting evidence",[287,759,760,763],{},[291,761,762],{},"Target Attainment"," counts months where Net R met or exceeded the adjusted target:",[384,765,768],{"className":766,"code":767,"language":389,"meta":390},[387],"attainment rate = attained months \u002F eligible active months * 100\n",[372,769,767],{"__ignoreMap":390},[287,771,772,775],{},[291,773,774],{},"Active-Month Participation"," shows how many selected months contained opportunities. It is context only and does not multiply or cap Reliability.",[287,777,778],{},"The monthly chart compares Net R with the adjusted target. Inactive months should be read as neutral gaps, not failed targets. Evidence may also show R expectancy, R observations and coverage, trade R variation, excluded partial months, and missing observations.",[304,780,782],{"id":781},"worked-scenarios","Worked scenarios",[413,784,786],{"id":785},"same-process-different-opportunity-counts","Same process, different opportunity counts",[384,788,791],{"className":789,"code":790,"language":389,"meta":390},[387],"January:  2 trades,  +4R total\nFebruary: 8 trades, +16R total\nMarch:    1 trade,   +2R total\n",[372,792,790],{"__ignoreMap":390},[287,794,795],{},"Lower-opportunity months receive smaller targets. February's greater production does not inflate the dependable floor through a simple mean or give February extra final weight.",[413,797,799],{"id":798},"stable-delivery-from-different-combinations","Stable delivery from different combinations",[384,801,804],{"className":802,"code":803,"language":389,"meta":390},[387],"January:  +6R, -1R                         = +5R\nFebruary: +2R, +2R, +2R, -1R, 0R          = +5R\nMarch:    eight mixed outcomes             = +5R\n",[372,805,803],{"__ignoreMap":390},[287,807,808],{},"Per-trade averages differ, but monthly delivered production is dependable. Reliability can remain high.",[413,810,812],{"id":811},"occasional-losing-months","Occasional losing months",[384,814,817],{"className":815,"code":816,"language":389,"meta":390},[387],"+9R, +10R, -2R, +12R, +8R, +11R, -4R, +10R\n",[372,818,816],{"__ignoreMap":390},[287,820,821],{},"The losing months create shortfalls. Their impact depends on frequency, severity, adjusted targets, and normal trade variation. Positive months above target do not cancel them.",[413,823,825],{"id":824},"no-trade-versus-break-even-month","No-trade versus break-even month",[287,827,828,829,832],{},"A month with no selected executed trades is inactive and neutral. A month with executed trades summing to ",[372,830,831],{},"0R"," is active and can miss a positive adjusted target.",[304,834,836],{"id":835},"evidence-requirements","Evidence requirements",[528,838,839,852],{},[531,840,841],{},[534,842,843,846,849],{},[537,844,845],{},"Evidence",[537,847,848],{"align":539},"Minimum",[537,850,851],{"align":539},"Recommended",[548,853,854,865,876],{},[534,855,856,859,862],{},[553,857,858],{},"Eligible active months",[553,860,861],{"align":539},"6",[553,863,864],{"align":539},"12",[534,866,867,870,873],{},[553,868,869],{},"Observed R trades",[553,871,872],{"align":539},"30",[553,874,875],{"align":539},"50",[534,877,878,881,884],{},[553,879,880],{},"R coverage",[553,882,883],{"align":539},"80%",[553,885,886],{"align":539},"90%",[287,888,889],{},"There is no minimum trade count for an individual month. Six to eleven active months or 30 to 49 observed trades can produce a limited result when every hard requirement is met. Below a minimum, the score is unavailable.",[287,891,892],{},"Missing R values are excluded rather than converted to zero. An active month with trades but no observed R makes the required history incomplete.",[304,894,896],{"id":895},"relationship-to-other-statistics","Relationship to other statistics",[348,898,899,905,911,917,923],{},[318,900,901,904],{},[291,902,903],{},"R expectancy"," measures average edge per trade. Reliability uses it only to adjust opportunity.",[318,906,907,910],{},[291,908,909],{},"Return smoothness"," measures stability of monthly percentages and can score constant losing months highly.",[318,912,913,916],{},[291,914,915],{},"Sortino"," measures mean percentage return relative to downside deviation.",[318,918,919,922],{},[291,920,921],{},"Calmar"," compares annualized percentage growth with maximum drawdown.",[318,924,925,928],{},[291,926,927],{},"Average monthly R"," can be lifted by exceptional months. The dependable floor deliberately resists that effect.",[287,930,931,932,935],{},"Review these together on ",[299,933,934],{"href":120},"Risk",". Reliability adds a specific view of repeatable active-month R production. It does not replace profitability, drawdown, or risk-adjusted return analysis.",{"title":390,"searchDepth":937,"depth":937,"links":938},2,[939,940,941,946,947,948,949,950,951,952,958,959],{"id":306,"depth":937,"text":307},{"id":338,"depth":937,"text":339},{"id":378,"depth":937,"text":379,"children":942},[943,945],{"id":415,"depth":944,"text":416},3,{"id":452,"depth":944,"text":453},{"id":485,"depth":937,"text":486},{"id":599,"depth":937,"text":600},{"id":627,"depth":937,"text":628},{"id":646,"depth":937,"text":647},{"id":724,"depth":937,"text":725},{"id":756,"depth":937,"text":757},{"id":781,"depth":937,"text":782,"children":953},[954,955,956,957],{"id":785,"depth":944,"text":786},{"id":798,"depth":944,"text":799},{"id":811,"depth":944,"text":812},{"id":824,"depth":944,"text":825},{"id":835,"depth":937,"text":836},{"id":895,"depth":937,"text":896},"Understand dependable monthly return, opportunity-adjusted targets, shortfall scoring, evidence, and the Monthly Return Reliability score.","md","monthly trading consistency, dependable monthly return, trading reliability score, monthly R target, trading consistency formula",null,{},true,"2026-08-20",{"title":123,"description":960},"S6BWuU6a5SyIdKMwKOdkl-IhD9ocnJ-wGgZfx_Iic3k",[970,972],{"title":119,"path":120,"stem":121,"description":971,"children":-1},"Learn how Trading Vault measures risk-adjusted returns, drawdown, recovery, loss containment, sizing, variability, and concurrent recorded risk.",{"title":127,"path":128,"stem":129,"description":973,"children":-1},"Learn how Trading Vault measures planning coverage, direction predictions, planned versus actual R, self-review ratings, and execution efficiency.",1787459255133]